Week 8: UNC @ UVa

As a fan base, we Tar Heels are used to success. I’m not trying to sound arrogant. But we are. We have a legendary basketball program, a football program that was once (and hopefully, will be again) very good, a baseball team that recently has had a lot of success, a women’s soccer dynasty, and non revenue sports that can be bragged about (lacrosse, field hockey, men’s soccer, ect). We have generated some of the best athletes in the world, blah blah blah…we all know who we are and what UNC is. So it is very rare that we find a fact illustrating Tar Heel futility in athletics. I think I saw “UNC: Last win at UVa in 1981” across ESPN’s bottom line about 392 times during the week. It annoyed me just as much as I’m sure it did you. We just aren’t used to that sort of thing as a fan base. We hold one of the most hilarious streaks in all of our sports with our undefeated record against Clemson in Chapel Hill.


But in all honesty, who cares? UVa is not a rival in the eyes of UNC fans. The streak of UNC football losses in Charlottesville is upsetting and a bit surprising but we all know that things like that don’t matter to the coaches or the players. Its one of those things that’s kept in the minds of fans every other year and is used by media members to add spice to what was thought to be an otherwise lame match up.


We all obviously know what the outcome was by now. ‘Hoos win 16-13 in OT. It was a bitter loss that will stay in our minds until the next win. Virginia was a team we should have beaten, with or without Brandon Tate. We got bounced out of the Top 25 and we find ourselves really fighting to stay afloat in the Coastal race. That is why it is bitter, that’s why it stings. It has nothing to do with streaks or ghosts or myths or anything made up like that.
Now, why did we lose?


1) Turnovers. Two Cam Sexton INTs and a very costly Nicks fumble in UVa territory. UNC has been winning close games by winning the turnover margin. We are (-5) in turnover margin in our 2 losses. The score might have been out of reach if we are able to turn those drives into points. UNC dominated Time of Possession and total yards gained but this was just negated by the ‘great equalizer’ of football.


2) Winded Defense. This is always a product of turnovers. UNC had two drives of more than 5 plays in the second half, with the first two being drives ending on turnovers, the terrible INT by Sexton to a D lineman and the Nicks fumble. The Defense played their hearts out and they stopped UVa’s ground oriented offense to only 58 yards rushing. UNC did exactly what they wanted to do for 58 minutes of the game, they had only yielded one FG and it probably would have been a shutout had the D been given some rest in the 2nd half and halfway decent field position to start with. And then…


3) The Prevent Defense. We had stopped UVa all freaking day. I’m not sure if the D was that tired since we had just had a nice 7 minute, 14 play drive. But we inexplicably changed out scheme from one that had worked all day went into the prevent defense. Look, it’s been said everywhere but I’ll echo it, THE PREVENT IS NOT WORKING. UNC was able to “force” turnovers on the last plays of the Miami and ND games to preserve wins. But both those games ended with the opponent driving on UNC’s prevent with relative ease. That’s exactly what UVa did and they scored to tie the game. Granted, the Heels were gambling that UVa QB Mark Verica was going to make a mistake, not a horrible decision considering he was third string 4 weeks ago, but it might have helped to bring some pressure. Also, some of it was on the players, the safeties were admittedly late getting to balls that could have/should have been knocked down. This could have been due to the fact that they were tired, but that really is just speculation.


4) Offensive adjustments. After the first UNC drive UVa made really nice adjustments to stop the UNC offense. Keep in mind, UVa might have one of the best LB corps in the ACC. So don’t sell them short. But UNC did not seem to really be able to readjust to UVa’s adjustments. This was chess-match football game, and John Shoop did not win. That said, the last UNC drive in regulation was very nice and would have scored a TD had it not been for a holding penalty. The play calling was already strained with the adjustment of losing Tate and the Sexton turnovers did not help anything. But I’m worried that UNC’s sans-Tate offensive philosophy will be a case of the coaching staff out-thinking themselves. We are still a very talented offense, even without Tate. I realize that Butch Davis and John Shoop know more about football than anyone who owns a blog so I have faith that this will be corrected.


NOT reasons UNC lost:


1) Kneeling with 0:47 seconds left. With the way Sexton was making mistakes (on the road) you CAN NOT risk any turnover when starting on your 30 in a tie ball game. You just can’t. Yes we had a timeout left, but what in the previous 59:13 seconds of that game made you think we were capable of driving 55 yards in 47 seconds? If Carolina keeps UVa out of the end zone in OT, then the Tar Heels win a contest of FGs. No doubt about it. We had blocked two UVa kicks already and their kicker had never played a game before that one. It was a smart move to take it into overtime. It was the best move.


2) Tate’s injury. We had to and still have to adjust to the loss of Brandon Tate. No doubt. But we have enough depth and talent at WR to do this. The rushing of Draughn and Houston was really a bright spot Saturday and I hope it continues. A football team is not one player. None of UNC’s 5 wins this year was solely due to Brandon Tate.


So where do the Tar Heels go from here? We have to regroup, again. UNC must find a way to move the ball again. Our defense is still good enough to keep us in every game. It’s as simple as that. Nothing is over for UNC this year, we are still 1 win away from a bowl game, but honestly, everyone wants more out of this season than that.


A lot of people seem to be ready to hit the panic button now. Just like after McNeese State, and just like after Va. Tech. We are going to have to learn to be patient as a fan base. Progress is obviously coming, but it will take time. The UVa loss was a bitter reminder that we still have a ways to go to reach the success we all want. Certain obstacles remain to be tackled, the Charlottesville streak just another. The UNC fan base isn’t used to having to wait, Roy William’s rebuilding process was well under way before he even got to Chapel Hill. Not the case for Butch. Rome wasn’t built in a day; neither will be this football program. Chin up Heels, we all know bright days lie ahead.